Connoisseurs of surf'n'turf may reap the benefits, but Maine lobstermen and mid-west ranchers are worried about prices
If you're ordering surf'n'turf, it may just about work out even for you. The fortunes of two of America's most popular menu picks are heading in opposite directions, with a sharp fall in the price of lobster to be offset by a jump in cost of dining on steak.
But as patrons ponder their mixed culinary blessings, lobster and steak producers are being left out of pocket as environmental factors conspire to knock the delicate supply-and-demand equation off balance.
For Maine's army of lobstermen, the early abundance of soft-shell lobster has seen an over-supply, and a resulting slump in the amount they can charge. It has seen the fishermen return to shore with boatloads of lobster – but diminishing returns.
"Yeah, it is hurting. People are taking a good 50%, 60%, 75% cut from what they would normally be taking this time of year," said John Drouin, 47, a lobsterman in his 34th season. Drouin has never seen the price as low as it is now: "Last year the off-the-boat selling price was $3 per pound. Right now, it is $1.35."
Such has been the impact of the early bumper haul of soft-shell lobster – which produce meat that is sweeter and easier to remove than their hard-shelled cousins – that some fear that the supply/demand imbalance could force some out of business.
"When you are talking about someone selling their boats, filing for bankruptcy – yeah, there are some individual cases," Drouin said. But he added: "Everyone is trying their hardest to weather the situation. We are still going out there, which of course means there is no end to the glut."
Which is good news for consumers. "Usually the peak of the season is August or September. This year it is an early and strong harvest," said Megan Thibodeau, of the Five Islands Lobster Company in Georgetown, Maine.
"I have worked here 11 years and we always open from Memorial Day in May to Columbus Day. We have never until this year had soft-shell lobster to sell as early as this."
The near-saturation of the market is thought to have been caused by warmer waters off the New England coast, increasing the food supply and drawing the lobster out into the open earlier than usual. As a result of the greater supply, fishermen have been unable to keep the prices up.
Most restaurants and lobster shacks in the area appear to be passing on at least part of their savings. At Five Islands, that means cooked lobster meat has dropped in price from $8 per pound to $5.50, Thibodea said.
But lobstermen are sceptical that restaurants further afield aren't widening their profit margins. "I'm sure some people are making money out of this," Drouin said. "From what I've seen, the local Maine restaurants are lowering their price. But when you get to other other parts of the country, I'm hearing they are still selling at the same prices. I've heard that some are saying that if they drop the prices then when they have to put it back up, customers won't want to pay."
If an overabundance lower down the food chain is responsible for lobstermen's current woes, the opposite is certainly true for America's producers of steak. Cattle farmers in the mid-west are suffering from a drought which has hit grain supplies hard, sending the price of feed upwards.
So far it hasn't had a major knock-on effect on the price of beef. But experts say it is merely a matter of time. Matt Deppe, chief executive of the Iowa Cattlemen's Association, said: "We are expecting the drought conditions to affect the yield of grain crops which in turn impacts on livestock.
"A lot of cattle producers think that they will make it through the winter, but it will be tight. If the drought persists, however, it may be a different prospect. When will it impact the price of beef? Not until probably the New Year – around January you will see it go up."
Restaurateurs are already anticipating charging diners more for steak. At San Francisco's high-end steakhouse Harris', executive chef Michael Buhagiar is factoring in a bump of around a couple of dollars per pound later this summer. "Right now there is no shortage of supply. But we think that will change in a couple of months or so," he said.
Likewise at New York's Peter Luger, steak-lovers may be forced to stump up more cash before long. A manager at the restaurant – which has topped a Zagat poll for best NYC steakhouse for the last 28 years –told the Guardian: "We haven't got a crystal ball, but because of what we are seeing with the drought, prices could go up. It hasn't gone up for a while, and even if it does go up it will only be a dollar or two."
Steak for four people at the Brooklyn eatery would set you back $183.80 at present, even before you add on sides, tax and service charge. Alas, there is no lobster on the menu for those looking to make a saving while the market allows.